All of the points subsequent to your first one conflict with that conjecture, that we'll see a huge swing back toward private cloud & on-premise DCs.
Speaking from where I saw the industry [when I was a part of it] and now from what kinds of CIO/CTO conversations I see the GCP AMs/SEs having, I don't think we're remotely close to a swing back. Enterprise Capex budgets move VERY slowly most of the time, and it will take a multiple years to alter current momentum, which has finally reached the point where it's almost a foregone conclusion for many industries that on-prem DCs no longer make sense.
This opinion is driven almost as much by the increasingly compelling portfolio of enterprisy SaaS products like Netsuite and a plethora of workforce management, CRMs, analytics/visualization, sooooo much more of what has historically been internally developed business productivity apps.
There are a lot of people who think public cloud is the bee's knees and is going to continue to grow without bounds. The fact is, private cloud revenue is 30X as big as public cloud. It's this big because of previous growth cycles. Also, there's the consumer market to consider, just like in previous cycles.
Public cloud is simply multi tenant computing on data managed by someone else away from where the customer created it. I'm predicting data will come home to roost on single tenant hardware (which comes in by way of IoT) and the code that has been called SaaS will follow it there. We'll still have managed services, they'll just run near us, instead of on compute owned by someone else.
Regardless of whether you agree with that or not, it's a HARD fact that bandwidth isn't growing as fast as storage and compute. That fact alone suggests heavy decentralization of service architectures in the coming years.
Speaking from where I saw the industry [when I was a part of it] and now from what kinds of CIO/CTO conversations I see the GCP AMs/SEs having, I don't think we're remotely close to a swing back. Enterprise Capex budgets move VERY slowly most of the time, and it will take a multiple years to alter current momentum, which has finally reached the point where it's almost a foregone conclusion for many industries that on-prem DCs no longer make sense.
This opinion is driven almost as much by the increasingly compelling portfolio of enterprisy SaaS products like Netsuite and a plethora of workforce management, CRMs, analytics/visualization, sooooo much more of what has historically been internally developed business productivity apps.