Recent trip from bangalore airport to hotel. Started with a clean, hot dry airport exit escorted to your air-conditioned car by hotel driver. Then briefly open fields. Then 30 minutes of red dirt road, with freeway in view barely in construction. With slums all along the street, with metal shacks aptly named 'hotels', with heaps of trash openly laid out and eaten by cows, with homeless kids/adults in bare feet walking along side of roads, with groups of women on their knees dusting the road with brooms. Then briefly comes tons of cars and people walking in between traffic. Tons of cars and people. Some semblance of city began to form. 2 story buildings. Then you're at your 5 star hotel in a 'nice' neighborhood. Across from slums and heaps of garbage and dirt roads and massive traffic and beggars everywhere. This is with no raining, which is usually 8 months out of the year.
Recent trip from Mumbai to airport hotel. Armed guards at outside the airport entrance. Taxi drivers mobbing you, trying to grab your bags. Your driver drives on local road as he speaks in his broken english how low this fare is, and you seemed to be stuck in traffic for an eternity what should've taken only 20 minutes. Highway barely constructed, with no workers in sight. Loud motor cars everywhere, no semblance of order. Tons of beggars/slums fills the side of the road. Nearby, restaurants, all with heaps of garbage sitting outside the establishments, attracting only the locals. Some fancy houses appear, but the are lost in the sea of ravage. A woman with a malnourished kid comes to your taxi and knocks on your window and begs. A woman with a bloody stump knocks on your taxi window, but your knowlegable friend says that's fake blood, although the missing hand is real. Then after a while, you arrive in a 5 star hotel, in the most posh neighborhood/city in India, not 10 seconds away from slums/garbage/cows/dirt. And this is with no rain.
A 3rd world country, with massive population and corruption and squatter's rights and caste system and religious fervor and terrible weather/land. Same economic progress in 1980s with China, but vastly diverged since.
Sure from the western perspective, it looks hopeless. But as an Indian, I am hopeful and not too displeased with the progress. Let me tell you why.
One of the central government cabinet minister may even do jail time -- now that is a good thing. A few years ago , corruption was never punished ; corruption was worn as a badge of honor.
We have more private sector jobs than ever and the number of such jobs is increasing. We have better roads and more are being built. Sure there is a a lot of traffic -- but we adjust and we do manage to get to wherever it is that we wanted to go.
Now you may think that I speak as a "upper class Indian" . That may be true now but I was not worn into wealth. Everyone I know in India has a better life than their parents did. There is more upwards social mobility than ever.
Now for the famous caste system. It is slowly disappearing as India is slowly transforming from an agrarian society into an industrial society. It is ever present but a while lot less ominous than westerners would like to believe. In western societies , people of color are stopped and harassed by police just because they look different. The caste system is less intrusive in our lives in India. Yes it is loathsome and horrible and it will take some time for it to disappear in the industrial India. But we don't get profiled ,harassed or stopped on account of caste.
The armed guards at hotel entrances are not to ward of thugs or drug dealers and they are a relatively new phenomenon; they are 'cause of our 'lovely' neighbors to the west.
Of course, I can't expect you to see India the way I do.
I have it better than my dad. My kid will have a better life than I do. And that is why I am hopeful.
Yesterday In a shocking incident, the office room and furniture used by a senior government official belonging to a Sheduled Caste community were 'cleansed' by sprinkling cowdung water, allegedly by some employees shortly after his retirement from service.
I am sorry to say this, but I don't think your kid will have a better life than you do. Here's why:
We're in the start (some say middle) of a worldwide economic depression. So far, massive printing of currencies have saved the day, but not for very long, as food/oil prices have skyrocketed within the past few months. For the next 10-15 years, we'll be suffering from high structural unemployment as well as higher cost of living, after interest rate goes up around the world. There is oversupply everywhere. Meanwhile technology innovations continue to reduce human worker demands.
Short of an another miraculous technology boom or world war, we will not exit the global bear market for the foreseable future.
I wish I could downvote you. Not for, because you are wrong, but because one can make any reasonable sounding claim about future and get away with it.
Oil prices have been especially kept artificially high by Oil Producing countries. And think about it, if they go high enough may be middle class people will start using Public Transport (and start caring about Public Transport). Rising oil prices is not an issue.
If you visit India again or just contemplate the differences between India and America, you'll see that A LOT of the GDP in the USA is generated via internal trade. And this happens because the USA is an efficient economy, with a lot of know how (i.e., "techonology" in the abstract form). India is progressing towards making it's systems efficient thereby allowing internal trade.
You seem to think that exporting goods is the only way to absorb extra industrial and service capacity. Yes, if you want do things double quick. But if you're OK with doing it ploddingly (like India is), a gradual ramp up of internal demand (due increased economic efficiency + scientific inputs) can also lift up everybody's standard of living.
Remember, there's actually not that much of a dearth of capital in India (people love to hoard gold; land is an asset etc). But there is a dearth of investment. Anyway, I'm repeating myself.
Yep, the speed does not matter as much as understanding the goal, esp. when resources become limited. And no doubt, India has deeper experience with operating on low resources, than nowadays western world does.
The 60 years old Gandhi paradigm is still reusable with modern tools today, compare e.g. with mobile/Internet impact on village production business.
Greer on Gandhi economical paradigm:
"His suggestion, to condense some very subtle thinking into too few words, was that a nation that had a vast labor force but very little money was wasting its time to invest that money in state-of-the-art industrial plants; instead, he suggested, the most effective approach was to equip that vast labor force with tools that would improve their productivity within the existing structures of resource supply, production and distribution.
Instead of replacing India's huge home-based spinning and weaving industries with factories, for example, and throwing millions of spinners and weavers out of work, he argued that the most effective use of India's limited resources was to help those spinners and weavers upgrade their skills, spinning wheels, and looms, so they could produce more cloth at a lower price, continue to support themselves by their labor, and in the process make India self-sufficient in clothing production."
- http://silverbearcafe.com/private/02.10/factories.html
At various times westerners who dont understand the various forces at work in india have predicted the fall of india. Churchill said: India will fall back quite rapidly through the centuries into the barbarism and privations of the Middle Ages (source: http://www.winstonchurchill.org/learn/speeches/speeches-of-w...)
Even we Indian barely understand all the forces and the interplay so I dont hold it too much against ppl who pass such pronouncements.
In the last 30 years or so in every parameter (health/education/life span) India has developed and this has happened to all stratas of sosciety. Please understand that I am not refuting the nytimes article. I am saying that poor people are also getting better.
Estimates for India also indicate a continuing decline in poverty. The revised estimates suggest that the percentage of people living below $1.25 a day in 2005 (which, based on India’s PPP rate, works out to Rs 21.6 a day in urban areas and Rs 14.3 in rural areas in 2005 ) decreased from 60% in 1981 to 42% in 2005. Source: http://www.worldbank.org.in/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/SOUTHA...
Yes, the rich are getting richer but the poor are also getting a bit better.
India follows the "Sheep Herd" mentality.
The whole country's economy is based on people getting into "Profitable" domains mostly following the success of a pioneer in the field.
The most recent example of this ideology is the "Business Process Outsourcing" industry.
New BPO units are propping up here and there at a dime a dozen leading to a quality deterioration in the final deliverable.
This process will continue till a saturation level is reached and then they will wait till another "Killer" domain picks up momentum.
Till then India will be in a so called "Calm Period" where nothing great and major takes place.
The population increased from ~700million to ~1 billion over that time frame. An 8% increase in the number of people living in poverty while the population grew 42% is still progress. The US has a similar history economic growth lifted most poeple out of poverty, but it took wealth redistribution to reduce the number of people living in abject poverty. (Now we have beggars making 20 times what an Indian day labor makes, but 100 years ago things where vary different.)
PS: The simple poverty numbers say vary little. If a farmer in the third world with a wife and and five kids he is unlikely to get out of poverty any time soon. But, with a reasonable education his kids can lead a much better life.
On 4th August 1932 Round Table Conference, British Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald gave autonomy/independence to Muslims/Christians/Anglo-Indians/Sikhs/SC/ST communities in India.
But Gandhi colluded with Ambedkar and foiled it to favor forward caste community in India.
I am an Indian, My father used to tell me how his mother (my grandma) helped him pay the tuition fees of his college by selling the silk from her marriage dress (Marriage dress, is an important thing for an Indian, Most Indians marry only once in his life :-) ) (Tuition fee was like 50 rupees (1 USD) ) back in 1970's
My mom used to tell me that it took her 1 year to save money for getting a table fan back in 1985. (my parents were teachers in a school)
Things have changed a lot in India after globalization. I am sure India is progressing, Every beggar in the street has cellphone.
It took united states 200 years to where it is now. We just got independence before 60 years. Please do not compare the living conditions of both countries.
Yes India has lot of problems, caste, religious extremism, lack of quality education, Corruption, Poor infrastructure, vast gap between the rich and the poor. I am sure she will eventually sort these things out.
"Same economic progress in 1980s with China, but vastly diverged since."
I don't get this. The current GDP of India is same as the GDP of China for the fiscal year 2003. [1][2] How is it "vastly diverged"?
Besides, India is growing fast (almost as fast as China) with many economists predicting that India will overtake China to become the world's fastest growing major economy soon and will likely remain so for years to come. [3][4] Citi group recently went as far as saying that India will be the biggest economy in the world by 2050. [5]
For westerners the poverty scenes in India can be depressing but for Indians the future looks bright.
regardless of future predictions it seems to support 'the vastly diverged since' claim. China's economy is almost 4x that of India's today where they were virtually the same size in 1980. That brings a lot of concern over democratic vs non-democratic in terms of bringing economic growth to the people.
China liberalised its economy in 1979 and India liberalised its economy in 1991 from Soviet styled socialism to American styled capitalism. Both countries grew rapidly from respective years. It's nothing to do with democracy/non-democracy, IMO.
China is prospering without India's dummy democracy.
Indians are brainwashed to believe that (voting in elections == democracy) and a solution to all problems.
This article is fiery and it has every reason to be. You can replace India with Russia, Brazil or any other country which has a dysfunctional government apparatus that is prone to endemic corruption. I wouldn't say there's no way out for India (we are in the midst of youth led democratic revolutions in middle east). Anna Hazare, a highly respected social activist, is fasting in Delhi and he is catalysing and crystallizing many Indian youths' feelings and aspirations to fix the root of this problem (my friends in Chennai, India are fasting to show support). I am optimistic of the future.
The death of democracy is not likely to be an assassination from ambush. It will be a slow extinction from apathy, indifference, and undernourishment.
- Robert M. Hutchins
That said I don't think you can look at India with a western "orderly" "everything must make sense" mindset. There is definitely some progress made and it is slow but overall the direction is right. If you look at the scale of the problems India has gotten herself into - population, scarce natural resources, education, corruption - generations have had nothing but apathy towards. But the newer generations are not like that - with increased Internet penetration (my home town, a rural area has 2Mbps always on broadband at cheap prices!), loosening grip of social/religious dogmas and greater interest in public affairs things stand a fair chance towards betterment.
To give you a few examples - when I was a kid (20 years ago) the maid that worked for my mom kept having kids year after year. My mom never thought of it until one day I suddenly yelled at her (overlooking the 5 kids of the maid in our backyard) that she had a duty to educate the maid about availability of contraceptives. Back then that was a radical thing for me to talk about such things at my age with my mom. Turned out our maid did not know that these things existed - a year later my mom had her operated at her will of course and the yearly flow of kids stopped!
There is certainly more social activism than there was 20 years ago and it is well organized and communicated thanks to improved communication tools - I know of 3 court cases where justice was done due to public activism - a well known politico's son almost got away with murder before public forced a retrial and got the guy back in jail.
There is also a crusade against corruption - this time with better results and more public support than ever before. The Govt. was forced to agree with the demands of a long time anti-corruption activist Anna Hazare - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Hazare-wins-anti-co... .
Cell phones have made lives better for a lot of poor people - my brother was telling me his paper boy has a BlackBerry and the fruit vendor had a Symbian phone!
Point being that it's a huge problem that has so far been dealt with apathy but that is changing fast. As more and more the older gen gets out, as more and more new educated people take matters in their control, it is bound to change more for the better.
There are no silver bullets in this - it's an ongoing thing that requires continued public involvement. There is no dearth of talented and well meaning people in India that cannot tackle these issues. It's only for lack of interest that it is languishing - as long as that is on the rise I have my hopes!
You have been constantly adding comments throughout the thread which add little in way of enlightenment or perspective. I have know idea why you have an axe to grind, but please be more constructive in your efforts.
I can abuse India eloquently, and criticize her very vehemently, having suffered at the receiving end of its failings. Complaining about them is a common Indian past time and we are all past masters of it.
That said, there is more to be done than just slanging out negative comments without constructive suggestions or criticism.
Yeah we have had this talk for decades - it's now time to stop that and do something about it. No offense but the belief that things will change themselves magically while I sit and complain - hilarious at the best!
Don't get me wrong; I love the optimism and determination and endurance by the young people in India I saw. But they're running out of time.
Investment in emerging markets is drying up (and will be for the foreseeable future), as developed countries are starting to hike interest rates to fight inflation. Oil and food prices are skyrocketing. So one side is jobs growth slows. On the other side is cost of living goes up. Same conditions around the world, but when you are living in India, that really hurts. And when jobs start to go to other countries with better skilled labors (better English fluency, better city infrastructure) such as philippines and malaysia and vietnam, watch out.
Honestly, considering the following facts:
1) The amount of cash still sloshing around in world markets,
2) That interest rates on loans in India are around 14-17%,
3) The fact that the Reserve Bank of India has not started to print money like the Fed, and
4) India has been hiking far earlier than developed nations - I'd say investment capital is not going to be an issue.
(Let me further add, that working in a financial firm which works with PE funds, I can assure you that interest in the emerging markets will NOT end.)
We, and almost all 3rd world nations, are also FAR more sensitive to inflation than the west, and have been working to curtail it for a while.
With regards to losing jobs to the Philippines and Malaysia - their competition is actually something that will do wonders for our competitiveness.
Perhaps what people don't see is the huge amount of work going into HR development in this country. For all those outsourcing jobs, India has had to take the HR manual, and rebuild it at a scale most people would not have expected.
For example the recent WSJ article on talent crunches in India - well that article was several years late. Vivek Wadhwa already wrote a comprehensive piece on how talent in India doesn't measure up in 2008. http://hir.harvard.edu/how-the-disciple-became-the-guru?page...
Its worth a read (also informative for any Indian entrepreneurs who are trying to figure out recruitment- which is a huge pain in the country.)
Break from what? How do those numbers support the breakup argument? :)
Also the numbers are for ease of doing business and are not predictors of future growth, HDI etc.
Also are the numbers high for those countries because they broke up? Also the US is number 5 in that list and is united.
I have visited almost all states in India. And the current status is:
Kerala - c/o Gulf
Tamilnadu - c/o LTTE
Andhra Pradesh - Telangana
Karnataka - c/o Cauvery
Bihar,UP - Their weapons are sophisticated than Indian Army's
Bengal - c/o China.
Seven sister states - Instant death if you are non-Assamese.
Punjab - c/o Khalistan
Kashmir - Kidding?
Rajasthan - They call you 'Paradesi'.
Maharastra - c/o Vidarbha.
UP - Bundelkhand, Poorvanchal etc
Chattisgarh - c/o Maoism
Recent trip from bangalore airport to hotel. Started with a clean, hot dry airport exit escorted to your air-conditioned car by hotel driver. Then briefly open fields. Then 30 minutes of red dirt road, with freeway in view barely in construction. With slums all along the street, with metal shacks aptly named 'hotels', with heaps of trash openly laid out and eaten by cows, with homeless kids/adults in bare feet walking along side of roads, with groups of women on their knees dusting the road with brooms. Then briefly comes tons of cars and people walking in between traffic. Tons of cars and people. Some semblance of city began to form. 2 story buildings. Then you're at your 5 star hotel in a 'nice' neighborhood. Across from slums and heaps of garbage and dirt roads and massive traffic and beggars everywhere. This is with no raining, which is usually 8 months out of the year.
Recent trip from Mumbai to airport hotel. Armed guards at outside the airport entrance. Taxi drivers mobbing you, trying to grab your bags. Your driver drives on local road as he speaks in his broken english how low this fare is, and you seemed to be stuck in traffic for an eternity what should've taken only 20 minutes. Highway barely constructed, with no workers in sight. Loud motor cars everywhere, no semblance of order. Tons of beggars/slums fills the side of the road. Nearby, restaurants, all with heaps of garbage sitting outside the establishments, attracting only the locals. Some fancy houses appear, but the are lost in the sea of ravage. A woman with a malnourished kid comes to your taxi and knocks on your window and begs. A woman with a bloody stump knocks on your taxi window, but your knowlegable friend says that's fake blood, although the missing hand is real. Then after a while, you arrive in a 5 star hotel, in the most posh neighborhood/city in India, not 10 seconds away from slums/garbage/cows/dirt. And this is with no rain.
A 3rd world country, with massive population and corruption and squatter's rights and caste system and religious fervor and terrible weather/land. Same economic progress in 1980s with China, but vastly diverged since.
I don't see a way out for India.