The bi(n)g assumption the article makes is:
Firefox switches to Bing from Google and still continues to be equally popular in the medium/long run.
There are multiple possible scenarios -
Post such a shift FFs market share erodes quickly and Microsoft basically bought a Lemon. Chrome becomes even more powerful.
Post such a Shift FFs market share is simlar to that it enjoys today - Microsoft bought some traffic but a a large majority of FF users switch the search engine back to Google. Microsoft bought a sort of Lemon
Post a shift - FF market share stable/increases and lots of people do not change default search - Microsoft bought a winner and Article makes sense.
I think in any of your 3 cases, if Microsoft pays 85 million then they are already ahead.
I'll be willing to bet that winning 1% of the search market cost much more than 85 million, and they'll get a much larger share of the market than 1%, even under your most pessimistic scenario.
I agree, I was actually surprised that MS didn't approach Firefox with a better offer right now. It makes senses now that I know there is a contract with a expiration.
Larger park means more advertiser interest for Bing. It would even be more profitable for Bing than it is for G because they need to conquer some of the G users.
I really do not see #3 as being so unlikely. How many people actually change their default search engines? We are talking about Normals, not just tech-savvy people.
There are multiple possible scenarios -
Post such a shift FFs market share erodes quickly and Microsoft basically bought a Lemon. Chrome becomes even more powerful.
Post such a Shift FFs market share is simlar to that it enjoys today - Microsoft bought some traffic but a a large majority of FF users switch the search engine back to Google. Microsoft bought a sort of Lemon
Post a shift - FF market share stable/increases and lots of people do not change default search - Microsoft bought a winner and Article makes sense.
I do not see #3 as the most likely outcome.