How much market share did these alternatives take?
With few exceptions the Desktop OSS apps are simply inferior to commercial options because UX requires consistency requires both an organization that is hard to form in OSS, and it requires extreme amounts of dull repetitive work of specific roles (graphic/interaction designers) that are still rare in OSS.
Few of the larger applications in the commercial column will be significantly replaced by the ones in the OSS column or a future OSS alternative.
> All software will be open source, and no one will make money with software.
Most software is boring niche business software. Most developers work on software that most people will never hear about. And no one would ever create it unless it is to pay their bills.
> Most software is boring niche business software.
That would be enough to call the conclusion bogus; there are millions of software packages that are written in specific niches which would bore anyone to death. They are also often written over years or even decades with input from 10 to 1000s of employees of a company. There is always money in that for software. And you can say; ok, so let’s skip internal software; a lot of software starts as internal and becomes a packaged or saas product after. I know many companies who wrote very niche internal software over the years and then decided to start selling it to competitors.
With few exceptions the Desktop OSS apps are simply inferior to commercial options because UX requires consistency requires both an organization that is hard to form in OSS, and it requires extreme amounts of dull repetitive work of specific roles (graphic/interaction designers) that are still rare in OSS.
Few of the larger applications in the commercial column will be significantly replaced by the ones in the OSS column or a future OSS alternative.
> All software will be open source, and no one will make money with software.
Most software is boring niche business software. Most developers work on software that most people will never hear about. And no one would ever create it unless it is to pay their bills.