I think there's a very obvious reason for the "productivity drop": Return to Office
I remember tons of studies showing that remote work had caused unprecedented increases in productivity so it seems plausible to me that companies ending it caused the productivity drop which caused the minor recession earlier this year (the big one due to the Fed's rate hikes is, I believe, still in the future). The article itself even acknowledges that remote work increased productivity yet ignores the 50 foot tall elephant in the room that is RTO.
The BLS recently reported that at its peak, only 7% of Americans were working from home, so this demographic is probably too small to have much large scale impact on the productivity numbers. If there is stagnation in the productivity numbers, we should look at what the other 93% of workers are doing.
Damn. Was it really that low? I ran into census data stating the following:
"Between 2019 and 2021, the number of people primarily working from home tripled from 5.7% (roughly 9 million people) to 17.9% (27.6 million people), according to new 2021 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year estimates released today by
the U.S. Census Bureau."
I Initially thought maybe the issue is average reported over years, but that does not seem to match either so I went to BLS[2] and the 7% number is there, but it is for for April 2022 and not its peak.
Yeah no kidding. If it were demanded of me to RTO after this time of working remote, they wouldn't get quiet quitting, they'd get active sabotage while I search for a new job. There's no excuse for torturing ICs with RTO for reasons of executive vanity.
Wait, are you saying you would actively sabotage your place of employment because they asked you to work in the office? Did you have the same feeling before WFH was even a thing?
Edit: Also, what does "torturing ICs with RTO for reasons of executive vanity" even mean? Have we come so far that working from an office is now "torture"? If so, the level of privilege is simply astounding...
I am not the parent, but I believe I can answer, because my thoughts on the few days that I do venture into office border on postal. In my defense, I hate people who invented mornings with a passion reserved for people, who hurt puppies for amusement.
When I see phrases like "executive vanity", I immediately picture a manager, who saw the productivity numbers gained and decided that those do no matter ( and some of us did go above and beyond specifically to show that there is a benefit to WFH for companies ) and instead opted for butts in chairs for no other reason than "I want to feel like I still matter". Some executives refers to this as management by walking.
<< Have we come so far that working from an office is now "torture"?
It is kinda like this. We all know WFH is possible. We know it results in good results for the company and yet management opts to RTO. They want me to commute, force me to get up extra early, almost kill people on the way two work if I do drive by car ( because I am sleepy; not because I am postal ) and somehow match the productivity that was happening precisely because we implemented WFH? Yes, by comparison it is torture. I had a glimpse of heaven and it was forcibly taken away from me ( it wasn't taken from me, but please understand that this is the mindset ).
edit: And, if you buy into one specific poem I will not name, hell is everyone but heaven and therefore torture.
Whether you agree with it or not is irrelevant. Put yourself in their shoes. See the world through their eyes.
If not, a good chunk of the people, who managed to keep the companies afloat during covid will bounce ( and some did ), because those are the people that actually knew what to do when SHTF.
And yet my company likes to remind people on a daily basis that it's a privilege to be allowed to work from the offices (because they just refurbished them). Literally their wording. Completely detached from reality
It's because RTO hasn't actually happened yet. Most companies either keep WFH or go with a hybrid solution. My theory is that the productivity boost wore off as soon as WFH became the new normal, and went negative due to obvious reasons (easier to slack off). Classic honeymoon phenomenon where everyone was ecstatic to work from home initially but got used to it and now take it for granted.
I agree it is almost certainly related. In that a lot of the reporting on rise of productivity that came at the beginning was just as explainable by noise as the current drop is.
That is, I can't rule this out. But I would also not bet against reversion to the mean. Such that the actual waterline on productivity is probably not known, just yet.
I remember tons of studies showing that remote work had caused unprecedented increases in productivity so it seems plausible to me that companies ending it caused the productivity drop which caused the minor recession earlier this year (the big one due to the Fed's rate hikes is, I believe, still in the future). The article itself even acknowledges that remote work increased productivity yet ignores the 50 foot tall elephant in the room that is RTO.