A few of the other engineers I work with think I'm crazy, but I'd bet $100 that in the next few years, Apple will produce a TV itself and remove this product from the market.
The well-known comment in the Jobs biography tipped their hand about a further commitment to TV. Literally everybody I've talked to about it balks at the idea of a full-on Apple tv set. That it's too murky, too much tangling with cable providers. Too much competition with existing set makers without the ability to really revolutionize the form-factor like cell phones. That instead they'd just give you a box that you can plug into an existing TV to make it good.
But Jobs (and Apple) have always been about "the whole widget." Moreover, they have a lot of experience building really great large displays.
Besides, TVs need it now. So-called "Smart" IP tv's are the future. TV's already have Apps. And the experience sucks because Samsung, LG, Sony, etc, are not in the business of making first-class software products. I believe the line where steve said he'd "finally cracked it." Because a lot of us I'm sure can see the rough outline of a product there. Let it run iOS. Let me remote control it with my other iOS devices. Let me integrate iTunes/etc in a first-class way. The murky part is: How exactly do you deal with existing cable content. Can I add HBO West to my home screen like an "app" right alongside the HBO Go app? That integration of these 2 side-by-side systems of content delivery (Cable and Internet) is the detail that I think needs to be "cracked." How great would it be to see this product emerge as posthumous part of Jobs' legacy..
I am reminded of years ago getting into an argument with the Apple fanatic on my staff (he was my net eng at lockheed) and I was saying that it was a certainty that apple was moving to Intel. He swore up and down this would never happen, that it was the stupidest idea he had ever heard and Apple would never leave the PowerPC platform...
What would be the difference between say a 21" or 27" iPad with Netflix and HBO Go and iTunes movies and TV shows, and an Apple TV set? We may just wake up a few product cycles from now and realize that the TV isn't necessary anymore.
What is the difference between a 21" or 27" iPad, and a 21" or 27" TV that supports AirPlay from a regular iPad "with Netflix and HBO Go and iTunes Movies and TV shows".
OK, now make the "TV" a monitor, perhaps with an HDMI input for the cable box.
The current fragmentation of the "smart TV" market is a mess: it's something that a unified environment could easily tear through.
But making the deals with content providers to create that environment is going to be astonishingly difficult. These are companies responsible for messes like http://theoatmeal.com/comics/game_of_thrones , along with the recent removals of films from Netflix by Starz. They love their monopoly on content and would likely be terrified to death by the concept of giving up control to Apple.
Not because of that. iTunes exists to make Apple’s hardware attractive, not the other way around. (Same with the App Store.) It’s pocket change for Apple. Just look at their quarterly reports to see what they are actually making money with.
They might want to keep the box around for the same reason there is a Mac mini (or they are still selling the iPhone 3GS and the iPad 2): To offer a low-priced entry point. They might also kill it because it clutters their product line. Or because it would be too cheap compared to a full-blown TV and everyone might just go with it instead of the TV.
Perhaps. But I think you have the economics backwards. Apple has said before that they break even from iTunes. iTunes exists as a low cost way for them to sell more devices.
Apple has a history of simple product lines. Supposing apple did release a tv, how would it make any sense to have a product called "AppleTV" that isn't a tv? Maybe you're right, but I stand by my own estimation.
No, they can't kill off the AppleTV with it's current form factor. They can create a TV, but the current form factor (headless) will remain. If they did, the Apple TV initiative would fail.
And I'll explain why. Just like Apple had to support Windows with their product lines, an Apple TV has to support other TVs. People like to forget that the first iPod didn't support Windows. Also consider that AppleTVs do their part in helping to sell devices. Right now, it's $99 to buy a device to extend the usefulness of my other devices. If we turn that around and I had to spend $2000 for a full blown TV just to put pictures up there? Yeah, not going to happen.
Can they release a TV? Of course! Will they rid themselves of the Apple TV as it stands? No.
On a side note:
> Apple has said before that they break even from iTunes. iTunes exists as a low cost way for them to sell more devices.
Yes. And remove iTunes from the picture and the whole ecosystem there, and see how many iPhones or iPods they sell. People buy these devices because of iTunes.
It could be the analogue of the Mac Mini compared to the iMac, it would fill a niche for those that want the Apple TV experience but already have a new fancy screen. So maybe the full TV would take over the AppleTV name and the little box would be dubbed the "AppleTV Nano". I bet it could sell well as an entry-level option if there are a range of products (and of course apps) in the ecosystem. As it is now it is an oddity.
> The murky part is: How exactly do you deal with existing cable content.
I know Apple doesn't have a history of big cash acquisitions, so take this comment with a big grain of salt.
My guess was that they were going to use that big pile of cash to buy in to the cable business, either by purchasing a premium television network like HBO, or by buying a cable provider. I dont know how realistic that is, but what if?
I'd bet $1000 that Apple will NEVER produce a TV. The fact that SJ stated they'd be more commited to the TV "segment" could as well mean they'll replace the AppleTV device by a better AppleTV thing.
The interface between a set-top box and any brand of TV is pretty much universal already (HDMI) - I don't see a reason why Apple would jump into a market known for it's absurdly small margins and with so much variance (not even Apple could convince everyone to buy TVs on the same size) - it makes a lot more sense to "control everything but the box itself" in that scenario. Granted, it's not very "Apple". It's just my gut feeling, anyway...
Literally everybody I've talked to about it balks at the idea of a full-on Apple tv set.
Not sure who you're talking to but within the CE industry this sentiment is reversed, almost everyone believes Apple is making a TV. It was expected at CES and perhaps as a surprise at the March event.
The well-known comment in the Jobs biography tipped their hand about a further commitment to TV. Literally everybody I've talked to about it balks at the idea of a full-on Apple tv set. That it's too murky, too much tangling with cable providers. Too much competition with existing set makers without the ability to really revolutionize the form-factor like cell phones. That instead they'd just give you a box that you can plug into an existing TV to make it good.
But Jobs (and Apple) have always been about "the whole widget." Moreover, they have a lot of experience building really great large displays.
Besides, TVs need it now. So-called "Smart" IP tv's are the future. TV's already have Apps. And the experience sucks because Samsung, LG, Sony, etc, are not in the business of making first-class software products. I believe the line where steve said he'd "finally cracked it." Because a lot of us I'm sure can see the rough outline of a product there. Let it run iOS. Let me remote control it with my other iOS devices. Let me integrate iTunes/etc in a first-class way. The murky part is: How exactly do you deal with existing cable content. Can I add HBO West to my home screen like an "app" right alongside the HBO Go app? That integration of these 2 side-by-side systems of content delivery (Cable and Internet) is the detail that I think needs to be "cracked." How great would it be to see this product emerge as posthumous part of Jobs' legacy..