I largely agree with the analysis in this essay, but I believe the book market can be more significantly disrupted than is currently being suggested. Here are the significant changes I see:
- Screen technology will improve so that the distinction between e-paper and conventional displays becomes irrelevant. I really think the retina display on the iPad is good enough for most people in most situations, and that the iPad will be a significant rival to the Kindle in the ebook market.
- Currently ebook readers are very limited in what they can display, due to their display technology and limited processing power. This limitation will disappear (see above -- the iPad)
- When the above occur there is no need for a special ebook format. An ebook is just a website. We have a huge investment already in creating websites which makes the cost of doing so virtually zero. Creating a book will require far fewer people (maybe an editor, some marketing assistance, and a few days of a graphic designer's time).
- Once we realise that an ebook is just a website, we can get away from the idea that a book is a single homogenous entity. Why not sell a chapter at a time, and use the feedback to improve subsequent chapters, in the same way we use A/B testing (or hopefully, bandit algorithms [http://mynaweb.com -- my startup]) to improve sites? Why not sell multimedia packages of text, screencasts, etc for technical books? (This already happens.) This gets away from the stupid model of paying advances that publishers currently use.
- People will need a discovery mechanism, but we already many of these for the Internet in general. Maybe new ones specialised to books will emerge. In this more open world it will be harder for anyone to get a monopoly.
I'm looking forward to a world where some books return to their 1800s newspaper-style formats: short chapters published weekly, like we get some graphic novels on the web now. I WANT to pay the author, and look forward to this happening. It's definitely a great space to look into. It may exist already and I don't know about it? (again, leaving it open for some startup to make waves..)
This is happening to some degree in audiobook form with Podiobooks.com - many authors release episodes weekly, as they write and record them. This is likely happening in text form too, but I find that I listen to rather than read books these days. Also, Amazon bought the dominant digital audiobook distribution platform in Audible.com for what that's worth.
Sounds something like a return to the magazine sales nodel of Dicken's time. I think there's probably room for this kind of "soap opera" type sales: you've only got to look at the way people follow long form fan-fic authors, commenting on chapters as they're released & interacting with the author as they write to see that this kind of model could be possible.
I doubt it will work for all forms of writing, some works just don't suit the episodic format, but I'm sure it will work for some.
Regarding screens, I honestly don't know that making the screen better makes for a better reading experience.
I'm in LOVE with my Kindle eInk display and, while it isn't nearly as 'all around good' as a Retina display for anything other than reading, I can't read for nearly as long on a retina screen as I can on eInk. The only complaint I would posit for eInk is that page turns are fairly slow, but that's on my older model Kindle. My wife's newer Kindle is much faster, though still noticeably slower than an iPad.
Regarding the 'chapter-by-chapter' publishing, Leanpub[1] is doing this today to some degree. Not 100% sure on the chapter-by-chapter functionality, but at the very least, updates to leanpub books are pushed out automatically to anybody who has purchased a copy.
Raganwald is publishing his new book[2] there as well, which was the first I'd heard of them.
> Regarding screens, I honestly don't know that making the screen better makes for a better reading experience.
I have several Android devices (phones, tablet) and an iPod Touch. They are all useless for reading outside (in the shade) because the screens are too reflective. Indoors they are all fine. I do most of my reading outside so this turns out to be a big problem.
I can't get a Kindle for technical reasons (I do not support Amazon and their DRM) and for financial ones - they do not charge sales tax, so I would have to do so on my tax returns which incurs large CPA fees as well as an audit trigger (California hates self employed people).
I also do not want a single purpose portable device. I prefer my portable devices to be multi-function - gps, games, web, movies, music, books etc all in one rather than carrying one device for each purpose.
Once someone figures out how to make general purpose Android tablets and phones with usable outdoor screens then things will really be better!
Y'know, it's funny that you mention it as a single-purpose device, because for years that's why I wouldn't own one. Wouldn't even look at one. When a friend of mine forced me to play with his, I cited the slow screen refresh, the DRM, and the unitask capacity and put it back down.
Then I got one for a gift. I didn't want it, per se, but I figured I had to at least pretend to like it. In doing so, I purchased a book, and then I read it, and then I was in love with it.
> The thing about being a single-purpose device is, at least in my opinion, nearly perfect, as a reading device. I routinely recommend it to people who are looking for an e-reader, and I routinely recommend against it for anyone looking for anything more. It's as close to perfect as I've seen, though its only direct competition is perhaps the Nook (which sucks, all around, in my opinion.)
I won't dare to question your principles on DRM, but I can say that at least in practice, they've never affected me. I have three active Kindles belonging to separate members of my family -- all tied to the same account. In addition to that, I occasionally use the Android and desktop clients, and it's never once given me any flack.
The Amazon Music DRM bit me once, and I boycotted it, but never with the Kindle stuff.
I don't think beefed up LCD displays are superior to eink for the purpose of reading books (or text). Thats akin to adding another horse to horse carriage while someone is rapidly iterating cars.
It might happen that the LCD prevails - if its true that people place a huge premium on integrated solutions. Thats one theory behind the explosion of the smartphone market.
I don't think LCD is superior to e-paper for reading. I just think LCD is good enough for most people already (in the high resolution iPad) and there is at least some possibility that a non-light emitting display with colour and fast refresh will be developed.
- Screen technology will improve so that the distinction between e-paper and conventional displays becomes irrelevant. I really think the retina display on the iPad is good enough for most people in most situations, and that the iPad will be a significant rival to the Kindle in the ebook market.
- Currently ebook readers are very limited in what they can display, due to their display technology and limited processing power. This limitation will disappear (see above -- the iPad)
- When the above occur there is no need for a special ebook format. An ebook is just a website. We have a huge investment already in creating websites which makes the cost of doing so virtually zero. Creating a book will require far fewer people (maybe an editor, some marketing assistance, and a few days of a graphic designer's time).
- Once we realise that an ebook is just a website, we can get away from the idea that a book is a single homogenous entity. Why not sell a chapter at a time, and use the feedback to improve subsequent chapters, in the same way we use A/B testing (or hopefully, bandit algorithms [http://mynaweb.com -- my startup]) to improve sites? Why not sell multimedia packages of text, screencasts, etc for technical books? (This already happens.) This gets away from the stupid model of paying advances that publishers currently use.
- People will need a discovery mechanism, but we already many of these for the Internet in general. Maybe new ones specialised to books will emerge. In this more open world it will be harder for anyone to get a monopoly.
So, what have I missed?