I agree with you and my friend said something similar.
During dot-bomb we knew. It was nuclear winter for tech. I was very lucky to get a quick offer from the owner I knew at a small company that was still doing OK (and was probably overconfident that was going to continue) when I was laid off.
Today, as you say, who the hell knows? So companies are somewhat randomly zigging and zagging all over the place. Oh, and toss AI into the mix.
IMO that is due to the general uncertainty caused by the current socio/political quagmire, and resulting confusion at the executive level.
Is this going to be a 'pro-Business' dictatorship with low interest rates even with rampant inflation?
Is it going to be a socialist utopia taxing the hell out of billionaires, and with high interest rates and moderate inflation?
Is the real economy going to crash? Or go up like crazy?
Is the country going to turn into a third world kleptocracy, or get it's act together and be a shining beacon of capitalism?
Who the fuck knows.
Both of those look VERY different from the investor, financial, and hiring side.