I'm going to favorite this thread and come back with a comment in 10 years. I think it will be fun to revisit this conversation.
If you really don't think that this line of research and development is leading to AGI then I think you are being hopelessly myopic.
>robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020
There are some incredible advances happening _right now_ in robotics largely due to advances in AI. Obviously 2020 was not exactly correct, but also we had COVID which kind of messed up everything in the business world. And arguing that something didn't happen in 2020 but instead happened in 2025 or 2030, is sort of being pedantic isn't it?
Being a pessimist makes you sound smart and world-weary, but you are just so wrong.
Being an optimist makes you sound naive and a dreamer. There is no scientific agreement that LLMs are going to lead to AGI in the slightest—we cannot even define what consciousness is, so even if the technology would lead to actual intelligence, we lack the tools to prove that.
In terms of robotics, the progress sure is neat, but for the foreseeable time, a human bricklayer will outcompete any robot; if not on the performance dimension, then on cost or flexibility. We’re just not there yet, not by a long stretch. And that won’t change just by deceiving yourself.
> line of research and development is leading to AGI
What do you mean by AGI exactly? if you want to come back in 10 years to see who's right, at least you should provide some objective criteria so we can decide if the goal has been attained.
>Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that matches or surpasses human cognitive capabilities across a wide range of cognitive tasks.
Most (if not all) of the tests listed on the wikipedia page will be passed:
>Several tests meant to confirm human-level AGI have been considered, including:
>The Turing Test (Turing)
This test is of course already passed by all the existing models.
This debate is tiring from both sides. The best LLMs can already beat me in “most cognitive tasks” if you think that means sampling over possible questions.
If you really don't think that this line of research and development is leading to AGI then I think you are being hopelessly myopic.
>robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020
There are some incredible advances happening _right now_ in robotics largely due to advances in AI. Obviously 2020 was not exactly correct, but also we had COVID which kind of messed up everything in the business world. And arguing that something didn't happen in 2020 but instead happened in 2025 or 2030, is sort of being pedantic isn't it?
Being a pessimist makes you sound smart and world-weary, but you are just so wrong.