Seriously, they’re trying to justify trillion+ IPO’s while setting piles of money on fire, prices aren’t going DOWN.

They aren't going down, but in the meantime they'll cover their ass by bribing their way into the S&P 500 and then use your 60 year old mother's 401k and teacher's pension to fund their risky capital expenditure.

Today's frontier models will be tomorrows low-end option. I think whatever model you are using today will be less expensive to use a year or two from now.

Last year's o3 was more expensive than 5.5 is. Whatever model we are using now is probably be more expensive than next year's leading models will be.

Price per M/tokens is also a fuzzy metric when newer models reason longer, and then burn more tokens while doing so.

Isn't 5.5 a router, though? As in, some prompts get automatically sent to a cheaper model?

> The world is out of fab capacity.

Can anyone expand on this point? I read an article saying that the big AI co's datacentre spend was a bunch of lies because they can't build datacentres at anywhere near the rate they want to.

From what I understand it’s mostly TSMC and the memory providers being out of capacity over the next few years.

So it’s not even about datacenters.

Here’s a Reuters article about TSMC: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/broadcom-flags-su...

So this is actual committed contracts with all kinds of companies such as Apple, NVidia, AMD.

Also, the whole reason they can’t build data centers faster is precisely because of this.

> they can't build datacenters at anywhere near the rate they want to

That was because the supplies the datacentre needed were constrained - supply-constrained, not end-user demand constrained, so would be in agreement with the GP comment (and the article I read didn't imply anything about lying).

Meanwhile, Google...

Google also needs fabs to build their TPUs.