They hold value as there is insane demand. The same reason a consumer RTX4090 costs more today than bew in 2021. Once the tide drops enough for hardware lead times to shorten to weeks, they will go the way of other used DC hardware - written off after 5 years.
For what its worth, SK Hynix CEO has every incentive to show that RAM prices will remain high for as long as possible because that is the only thing which is floating their evaluation to such astronomical amounts.
Independent estimates sort of show around 2027-28 from what I remember.
I remember reading some article which said that RAM prices are already going down from its peak slowly (IIRC I can be wrong, I usually am but 3-5% month from its absolute peak) but the current RAM prices are still astronomical given past rates but the RAM prices will slow down hopefully sooner rather than later.
Also, I don't recall any era where "proof" is required for allegations. "Evidence" is probably prudent, but proof is usually produced when the accused gets ends up in court.
Unless you time travelled from a feudal era where they throw you in jail for slandering the nobleman or something.
> Back in the day, we used to have this thing called “proof” before making wild allegations of illegality
I understand that you might've wanted to know more sources but its better to ask them directly in good faith as I am more than happy to provide sources and have a good faith discussion! :)
> are you just playing pretend?
(This part feels a bit personally rude to me. I would prefer if you could omit this part of the messages in future or take care of that, Hackernews is a lovely community for the most part so lets keep it that way :-D)
I appreciated reading the comment of @hnfong. The DRAM Price fixing scandal and multiple criminal investigations are something that I didn't even know of!
The general consensus is that its late 27-28 and I would like to share some of the sources that you were asking.
I don't know if they are lying or not but the interview on reuters was conducted on the same day that they went on Nasdaq
> "We forecast that next year will be the worst year in the industry's history from the supply perspective," Kwak told Reuters in an interview on Friday, the day the South Korean memory chipmaker began trading on Nasdaq.[From (1)]
> Multiple analysts push meaningful relief to late 2027 at earliest — with some estimates stretching into 2028[0]
> UBS likewise expects the global DRAM industry to remain undersupplied until at least the second quarter of 2028.[1]
The above one [1] reference is literally from the reuter article itself which was referenced in the parent comment
> Across the U.S., China and Europe, DDR5 RAM prices fell sharply. For example, after reaching an all-time high of $500, Corsair’s Vengeance 32GB kit is now down to $369 on Amazon. Memory has fallen more than 20% from recent peak prices, and stock prices of major memory factories like Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix have seen drops of over 20%.[2]
No one knows. There's a known bullwhip effect in supply chain [0], and DRAM makers are pretty far out along the supply chain. Just like it ramped up wildly it will stop even faster.
