Maple farms take decades to reach maturity. The US imports about 4x more maple from Canada than Vermont’s entire production capacity. It’s not possible.
So consumers will pay double or substitute with flavoured corn syrup.
Scarcity is not really the problem—it is price competitiveness. Many, possibly most, maple syrup producers in New England do not sell to national grocery store chains. You go to the sugar house and buy a jug which is typically much more expensive than what you’d find in a grocery store. But you also have more choices, since you can buy from a person who sells different grades. I rarely see more than one grade for sale in a US grocery store. I don’t mind paying a little extra for something I use in such small quantities to support a neighbor.
> Many, possibly most, maple syrup producers in New England do not sell to national grocery store chains.
But scarcity is the problem. Unless you're able to demonstrate that the low supply is artificial, and that maple syrup producers are a cartel and restrict their own production and distribution chain, as well as block any newcomers from trying to enter large-scale production.
Because as is is, if they manage to sell their entire supply through their sugar shacks, then it obviously means they don't have enough capacity to supply grocery chains, let alone on a national level. That's the literal definition of scarce supply.
They absolutely restrict their own production. Have you ever been to one of these things before? There are probably a few maple syrup producers out there trying to scale up, but for the vast majority, it’s a lifestyle/supplemental income kind of thing. They tap some trees, invite everyone over and charge a few bucks for pancakes while they boil their syrup, and then move on to other things when the ground thaws. The University of Vermont has been trying to set up sap production as a competitive form of agriculture but people just aren’t interested. Literally every syrup producer I’ve met was in it for the romance.
