Its nice to see some backbone, but the challenge for Canada is that it’s broadly in a weak negotiating position here. Generally speaking Canadian companies need access to the US market a lot more than US companies need access to the Canadian market.
In context, this only applies to oil that the US imports. That number means that of the oil that the US imports, 60-70% of it comes from Canada. The US currently produces more oil than any other nation. Your note should read "the US imports 60-70% of the oil that it imports from Canada"
- 100% of the natural gas
As mentioned above, this means that US imports of natural gas come exclusively from Canada. The US currently produces more natural gas than any other nation too. Your note should read "100% of the natural gas that the US imports comes from Canada"
It makes sense that Canada is sole source for imported natural gas since that is a product that is most efficiently transported in pipelines, like crude oil.
The way your numbers are framed seems to me to imply that the US is a net importer of oil and natural gas when in fact we began to ramp up exports of oil and natural gas (and coal) in 2006-2008 time period. Those exports helped the industry remain a dominant political force and provided a lot of seed money for the corruption that we have seen in the US since.
This is all true but the story is a bit more complicated because of the nature of the refinery configurations means that many of the refineries in the US are specifically geared for / dependent on the heavy crude that comes from Canada and are not set up for the light crude that comes from US domestic oil.
Major pipelines (e.g. Enbridge / Mainline / Line 5 etc system) also cross the border back and forth. Same for natural gas etc.
Like auto parts/auto manufacturing -- the whole system has been assumed in the past by economic decision makers to be a continent-wide system.
Trying to break that apart now is just trying to jam toothpaste back in the tube.
It would be an incredible multi-year economic disruption if Canadian oil and gas were to be turned off tomorrow. The bullshit "we don't need anything from Canada" line is beyond insane.
Thanks for fleshing out another part of the situation. All of our energy production and processing capacity is dependent to some extent on products that are not domestically sourced. Our Gulf of Mexico refineries were originally built to use heavy Venezuelan crude. Citgo is basically the 100% state-owned Venezuelan oil company PDVSA. It is chartered in the US as a Delaware corp headquartered in Texas as PDV Holdings which owns 100% of Citgo Holdings shares. Even with instability in the region and strained relations, the Citgo operation was critical to US production of refined products. Canadian tar sands production began ramping up after 9/11 as in-situ production using steam injection became a big driver over open mining operations. There was consolidation in the industry during that period as the industry rebounded from low crude prices a few years earlier (as low as ~$11.50/bbl) In a few short years the prices had stabilized above $50/bbl so that it has remained economical to produce. Before that, the heavy crude, tar-like products almost all came from Lake Maracaibo.
And Canada has also been passing up an absolutely enormous opportunity for industrial growth by spending generations supporting American industry by remaining a primary resources economy.
I was only 2 in ‘88, but the story is the same from my perspective. I think so much about how to get my city to incentivize more manufacturing industry. The small amount we do have is the most lucrative use of the space in the municipality on a square foot basis, yet the city makes it far more difficult than is necessary to start these types of businesses. Worse still is that this type of space, relative to population, is decreasing when it should be increasing.
We have SO MUCH potential in Canada. It’s incredible. The only thing stopping us is ourselves.
What drives me nuts too is that my kids find work in places like tourist traps and Tim Hortons. When I was a kid I got to learn to build things, use tools and machines, use my body, plan projects (albeit very menial ones in my teens), and figure out what the hell all this abstract stuff in school was really for. I was applying math, drafting simple designs, writing to customers about orders, and using skills I hadn’t found real-world uses for up until that point. They’re missing out so much. But our city is, too. My kids are worth far more than serving coffee and frying fish and chips for tourists. And they’d be worth even more in ten years if real opportunities existed here. They’d have knowledge and skills they’ll never find in those places.
It really drives me crazy. So much wasted potential. We can do better, but we need policies that enable us to do it.
Notably, none of the goods you just mentioned about (energy imports, uranium, potash, etc.) have had tariffs applied by the Trump regime because they know all this. And it would be political suicide to apply an export tax on them.
No, instead the Trump tariffs have specifically targeted the regions of Canada that a) elect left of centre governments and/or b) have manufacturing economies.
So Ontario's auto sector, BC's forestry, and Quebec's aluminum and aerospace sectors.
Meanwhile Alberta and Saskatchewan -- which have compliant quite honestly pro-Trump governments -- have only 2% of their exports currently impacted by tariffs.
It has the look of an attempt at regime change, masquerading as economic policy.
>Canada is that it’s broadly in a weak negotiating position here.
That's an understatement. Hypothetically if Canada were isolated from the world, it would regress in the quality of life in 10 years. The most capable Canadians have moved out, mostly to the US. The average Canadian has unwarranted sense of nationalistic pride about them (compared to their neighbors).
Isolate US from the world, and assuming that the govt does not meddle too much with local businesses, in 10 years they will bounce back to being more self sufficient than it is now.
This is a useless hypothetical. Almost every country would regress in quality of life if it were suddenly cut off from the global economy. The options aren’t a bad deal from the US or complete isolation. Canada is making deals with reliable partners abroad.
By definition if you isolate a country from the world it would be more self sufficient that very moment than it is the moment before it is isolated. Isn't that obvious?
Agreed self-sufficiency isn't the best term.
But if I were to rephrase it, let say that self-sufficiency in terms of the quality of life - US would be in much better shape than Canada. Canada has _significantly_ much more to lose than the US.
Sure, but you don't need that hypothetical to explain that. The USA produces and consumes more goods than Canada. Overall people are resilient and able to survive such disruptions. I'd rather be sovereign and poorer than whatever kind of second-class "American" status the USA would grant us forcibly annexed Canadians. To me that's more to lose than every loonie in my bank account.
> I'd rather be sovereign and poorer than whatever kind of second-class "American" status the USA would grant us forcibly annexed Canadians
The biggest 'enemy' of Canada is not America(s). It's the Canadian govt itself. Most Canadians cave into their tribal instinct of 'us versus them' and cannot see past that own manipulative govt.
Canada has not only proportionately significantly more trade restrictions (between countries) compare to US, but it also have significant restrictions to trade and free market within Canada: example quotas on milk, dairy, beef and chicken. There are more taxes at every stage of a transaction with little benefits ( yes people mention 'free' health care but it's another subject). Relatively unaffordable housing mostly due to taxation (For example the tax part of condo in Toronto/Vancouver is cumulatively about 35%) etc.
Just to be clear both govts of US and Canada are tyrannical. Americans on an average distrust their govt more than Canadians - hence they overall do better in keeping their govt overreach in check.
True, I did watch the Americans keep their government in check when they did not attack Iraq in 2003 and when they did not attack Iran recently. They kept their government in check when they did not kill school girls in Iran. They kept their government in check when government agents did not kill US citizens protesting government overreach, not to mention all the times the American people prevented their government from killing, kidnapping, arresting, torturing and imprisoning undocumented people. I greet the bane to tyranny, these beautiful American souls, whose hearts are gladdened only by life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
