LLM capability improvement, eg as measured by METR task time.

So it's an exponential with a negative exponent? The thing about those kinds of curves is that since they have asymptotes to zero, it's hard to tell when you've plateaued.

No, the metric is “p50 task duration”.

7-month doubling time, recently 4-month: https://metr.org/

Plenty of other exponential metrics too, compute built, AI revenue, etc.

monthly AI bills :-)