My dad ran much of the planning for Broward County (one county north, home to fort lauderdale) until he retired a few weeks ago. There are a lot of dynamics at play in South Florida which make this very complicated and obviously an impending disaster.
The first is that while Broward County is progressive and has been proactively dealing with and planning for sea level rise, Miami Dade county has a very large Cuban voter base which tends to sway the politics more center if not altogether right. I always postulated that this is mostly a reaction to the communism that they immigrated away from however it is my opinion that the newer generations will slowly move more to the left (granted, this phenomena is probably larger than just SoFla's cuban population).
As the article mentions, most of South Florida is built on top of limestone (calcified reefs from a previous geological period). The water table is only a few feet below the surface hence there are at least two major reproccusions for sea level rise. In older neighborhoods (Hollywood, anything east of the Atlantic Coastal Ridge [what I95 is built on]), a high tide + rain typically stalls the drainage system with water flooding streets and homes.
A second major problem is that the Biscayne Aquifer, the water supply for the millions of people in South East Florida, is experiencing salt water intrusion due to higher sea levels. You can think of the aquifer as sort of a dome with its highest point farthest inland and as the sea level rises the dome is getting skinnier. Even while I was growing up, they were decommissioning water well fields because of the salt content starting with the most coastal and moving inland. Inland suburbs in Broward like Sunrise are then selling their water to the other municipalities for a killing but at some point even they will have issues as the aquifer becomes squeezed.
As far as development and the housing market, a big driver of change for the middle class housing market I believe is going to be insurance. Wind storms and the accompanying flooding are eventually going to make living there more expensive and insurance policies less affordable.
Another issue will likely be tourism as it is largely tied to its environment. As the everglades experiences rapid salt water intrusion, the reefs continue to be bleached due acidification, and mangroves migrate inland slower than sea level, the productive estuaries might become less productive for popular sport fish and commercial species. Another major industry in South Florida is the boating industry which has tons of demand generated by fishing, scuba, and general ecotourism. As those generators are put in jeopardy, there will without a doubt be a ripple throughout the economy.
Lastly, county governments (which are the most substantial government players in South Florida) will begin to experience issues because their expensive properties closest to the water are the biggest contributors to the tax base. As those low lying areas are flooded more frequently, there is a very real possibility that the value of all the mansions lining the streets and canals drop.
My view of South Florida is rather bleak but even if Miami Dade and Broward manage to figure out sea level rise, I doubt the Florida Keys have much of a chance.
Regarding insurance, my mother recently purchased a house in the area and her insurance costs rival her mortgage payment. It's astonishingly expensive. My insurance payment in Northern Virginia is less for a year than hers is for a month, on a house that cost 4x as much. So it's already a massive issue and will only get worse from here.
Encourage her to get out now. Every sign suggest those insurance rates are only going to increase. And while property values might be increasing at the moment, it's only a mater of time before the insurance rates become so onerous she can't afford the property. And at that point good luck finding anyone willing to buy it.
that's a great little read. Just in talking with friends and hearing conversations in South Florida, it certainly feels generational. As far as voting, as the younger generations start to vote more, I'm sure we will see a major shift in the political landscape in SF (not San Francisco lolz).
> Lastly, county governments (which are the most substantial government players in South Florida) will begin to experience issues because their expensive properties closest to the water are the biggest contributors to the tax base. As those low lying areas are flooded more frequently, there is a very real possibility that the value of all the mansions lining the streets and canals drop.
This can't be overstated. There is no state income tax in Florida. Property tax and tourism-related taxes are major sources of income for municipal organizations in FL. As these go, so goes the funding for public entities.
"Global warming" is dragged into this because there are other parts of the US that will face similar situations in 20-50 years if "global warming" is true. (I like "climate instability" better as a phrase, as it's not warmer everywhere and "warming" leads to barriers to understanding among the literally-minded.) Look at New York and other coastal US cities. Look at the entire nation of Bangladesh. If we could face the possible realities and start figuring out what to do about Miami, including dykes and water infrastructure or the idea of simply abandoning the place, we might have a start on what to do about the rest.
The dykes needed would require massive civil engineering projects and expensive pumps as mentioned in OA (the bit about New Orleans). That needs coordination at a regional level and I gather from the OA that the required consensus does not exist.
I think you have a point in the sense that building a consensus may require a tacit agreement not to mention global warming, but simply to look at the frequency of flooding in specific areas (which will show a rise) and the inland creep of the 'potable water contour'. I'm saying agree about the phenomena and agree to disagree about the cause.
I think what "environmentalists" are angry about is the logic of "climate change is not man made, therefore climate change is natural / gods will, therefore we won't do anything, including dykes and infrastructure or like movin people.
Euhm, I would say it's the opposite. Environmentalists will oppose dykes and infrastructure, because they will remodel the natural environment around the coastline and make it artificial and managed by human interference (which is of course, the very point of having them, so it's absolutely non-negotiable, beyond carving out a few reserves maybe).
The first is that while Broward County is progressive and has been proactively dealing with and planning for sea level rise, Miami Dade county has a very large Cuban voter base which tends to sway the politics more center if not altogether right. I always postulated that this is mostly a reaction to the communism that they immigrated away from however it is my opinion that the newer generations will slowly move more to the left (granted, this phenomena is probably larger than just SoFla's cuban population).
As the article mentions, most of South Florida is built on top of limestone (calcified reefs from a previous geological period). The water table is only a few feet below the surface hence there are at least two major reproccusions for sea level rise. In older neighborhoods (Hollywood, anything east of the Atlantic Coastal Ridge [what I95 is built on]), a high tide + rain typically stalls the drainage system with water flooding streets and homes.
A second major problem is that the Biscayne Aquifer, the water supply for the millions of people in South East Florida, is experiencing salt water intrusion due to higher sea levels. You can think of the aquifer as sort of a dome with its highest point farthest inland and as the sea level rises the dome is getting skinnier. Even while I was growing up, they were decommissioning water well fields because of the salt content starting with the most coastal and moving inland. Inland suburbs in Broward like Sunrise are then selling their water to the other municipalities for a killing but at some point even they will have issues as the aquifer becomes squeezed.
As far as development and the housing market, a big driver of change for the middle class housing market I believe is going to be insurance. Wind storms and the accompanying flooding are eventually going to make living there more expensive and insurance policies less affordable.
Another issue will likely be tourism as it is largely tied to its environment. As the everglades experiences rapid salt water intrusion, the reefs continue to be bleached due acidification, and mangroves migrate inland slower than sea level, the productive estuaries might become less productive for popular sport fish and commercial species. Another major industry in South Florida is the boating industry which has tons of demand generated by fishing, scuba, and general ecotourism. As those generators are put in jeopardy, there will without a doubt be a ripple throughout the economy.
Lastly, county governments (which are the most substantial government players in South Florida) will begin to experience issues because their expensive properties closest to the water are the biggest contributors to the tax base. As those low lying areas are flooded more frequently, there is a very real possibility that the value of all the mansions lining the streets and canals drop.
My view of South Florida is rather bleak but even if Miami Dade and Broward manage to figure out sea level rise, I doubt the Florida Keys have much of a chance.
Time to figure out how to short real estate.
And Lebron left