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Borne out? Compared to what? The RSS and UAH 6.0 lower troposphere predictions? What other measurements do we have that don't have uncertainty bands as large as the measurements?

And the zero trend from May 2015 extends back to 1996 for RSS and UAH 6.0.



That "zero trend" is only there if you use annual averages.

Again: use decadal moving averages, and an entirely different picture comes up.


How do you use decadal moving averages from satellite data that has only existed since 1979? You'll get roughly the same trend as the full data set. Even so, the last two decades would still be flat, or very nearly so.


Hint: decades don't have to start with year 10*n+0.


We already know the full data set has a 1.2K/century trend (this is annual trend most commonly used to represent the data). Decadal moving averages aren't going to shed more light than that. We also know that if you just grab the last 19 years and 6 months, or any smaller subset of that, you'll see 0 to negative trends.


Which is why you should not follow along the denialist gambit and grab just those two data points.


But they're the best data we have. They have the widest coverage, the least uncertainty. At nighttime the SST satellites can have over 10C of error due to cloud cover. I've no doubt the earth is warming. My doubt is that measurements with wide confidence intervals should be used over those with low confidence intervals because they tell a more compelling story.




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